Italy’s durum wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing season is expected to increase by 5%, with volumes projected at around 3.8 million tonnes compared with 3.6 million tonnes in the previous season. The outlook emerged during Durum Days 2026, the international grain-to-pasta supply chain event held in Foggia, Apulia, bringing together agricultural associations, milling companies, food processors, and research institutions.
Analysts said favourable weather conditions had supported crop development across Italy’s main producing regions. Industry participants highlighted the recovery from the water shortages that had heavily affected southern regions such as Apulia and Basilicata over the past two years, describing the improvement in water availability as a strategic factor for the sector.
However, speakers also warned of persistent structural challenges facing the industry. Among the main concerns cited were lower agronomic investment caused by rising production costs, the spread of crop diseases in southern Italy linked in part to reduced use of certified seeds, and uncertainty over grain quality, particularly protein content.
On the research front, Italy’s Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (Crea) underlined the growing role of genetic innovation in cereal production. Researchers explained that Assisted Evolution Techniques (TEA), based on precision genome-editing technologies, are enabling the development of new durum wheat varieties with greater resistance to climate stress and major fungal diseases, including rust and powdery mildew. According to Crea researchers, several experimental lines developed in Foggia are now ready for field trials following the completion of genetic verification procedures.
The international outlook presented by consultancy firm Areté pointed to a broad increase in global durum wheat production during the 2025-26 campaign. Canada is expected to post a 12% increase, reaching 7.1 million tonnes — the highest level since the 2016-17 season. Production is also forecast to rise in the United States (+5%), North Africa (+18%), and the European Union (+5%), while Turkey is expected to record a 16% decline.
The increase in production and the accumulation of stocks are contributing to a global surplus in the durum wheat market. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 season, however, Areté forecasts declining production in the European Union (-4%) and especially in North America, with Canada projected down 17% and the United States down 13%. By contrast, output is expected to recover in Turkey and North Africa.
Analysts said this scenario should keep global production broadly stable while maintaining ample market supplies. The anticipated reduction in harvests in Europe and North America is expected to limit the likelihood of a sharp fall in prices during the next campaign, although elevated global stock levels should continue to ensure abundant supply and cap upward price pressure.
Geopolitical instability remains a key risk factor for the sector, according to conference speakers, with the potential to influence trade flows, the euro-dollar exchange rate, energy prices and the cost of agricultural inputs.
L’articolo Italy’s Durum Wheat Output Seen Rising 5% in 2025-26 Despite Market Surplus Concerns proviene da Italianfood.net.